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With the help of conditional probabilities formulas are derived for the first and second moment of R2 as a function of the size of the model. The formulas are valid in the space group P{\bar 1} for two extreme cases, viz completely correct and completely incorrect models. Incorporation of the observed intensities enables one to obtain accurate a priori estimates of (R2) and σ(R2). The theory agrees very well with simulated experiments.

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